Certainty series http://en.wikipedia.org/

Certainty series http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... Agnosticism Approximation Belief Certainty Doubt Determinism Epistemology Fallibilism Fatalism Hypothesis Justification Nihilism Probability Scientific theory Skepticism Solipsism Theory Truth Uncertainty [ Certainty - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki...

Aug 9, 2013 from

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Indeterminacy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... ]]] Philosophy of statistics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... involves the meaning, justification, utility, use and abuse of statistics and its methodology, and ethical and epistemological issues involved in the consideration of choice and interpretation of data and methods of Statistics. Qualifying Agnosticism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... [ Truth value http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... , 8 -12 There are known knowns http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... , 8 -13 sort Two-stage model of free will http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... 3 -26 sort http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2014... Four kinds of persons: zeal without knowledge; knowledge without zeal; neither knowledge nor zeal; both zeal and knowledge. – Pascal, Pensées http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/tag... 3 -27 sort http://www.nybooks.com/article... 4 -2 http://www.nytimes.com/2014... 8 -28 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

8 -10 sort http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... , 8 -12 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... [[[[[[[ 6 -25 sort http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

Approximation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

Belief http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... , 8 -10 BDI ( Belief Desire Intention ) system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

11 -13 Justification - Beliefs } Cultural systems are seen to evolve much in the same way as organisms do in biological evolution: there is a process of variation, selection and retention of belief systems. http://psychweb.cisat.jmu.edu/ToKSyst... Justification Systems will compete and evolve. Belief-value networks that effectively coordinate groups with be maintained or strengthened, incoherent, inaccurate, ineffective justification systems will die out. [ justice? [[ Beliefs and values are not randomly distributed in people’s heads, but instead are networked together to form systems that ultimately function to legitimize action. - Thomas Page

9 -15 Don’t these people see that there is no certainty here? But for them there is certainty because they have faith. And what I learned from all of them is that belief is this mirage that provides the illusion of certainty. And for them, it is no longer just belief, it’s certainty. http://www.ttbook.org/book... [{[{ 9 -24 sort http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://www.openculture.com/2013... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... 11 -5 http://www.sciencefriday.com/blogs... - Thomas Page

If you're just joining us, my guest is Commander Chris Hadfield. He has a new book called "An Astronaut's Guide to Life on Earth." He did three space flights and two space walks. I'm wondering about the transformative nature of the experience of being in space and doing space walks. I don't know if you were ever religious or not. Either way, I'm wondering if being in space changed your concept of your place in the universe and whether any sense of spirituality or organized religion or a god figures into that or not as a result. HADFIELD: It's an amazing place to think about that topic. You know, picture yourself separated from the other six and a half, seven billion people where you can see them all from a distance. You know, every 90 minutes you go around and the world turns underneath you like a big jewel. And you have left all of them and you're looking at - it's almost like a god-like view of the world, right? At least our limited human understanding of what that god-like view might be, looking down almost paternally on everybody. And so it really makes you think. And the world, you look at it, it just can't be random, looking at it. I mean, it's so different than the vast emptiness that is everything else. And even all the other planets we've seen, you know, at least in our solar system, you know, none of them even remotely resembled the precious life-giving nature of our own planet. Maybe there's life on Mars too, but the big pervasive feeling onboard looking at the Earth is one of tremendous, exquisite privilege that it exists. And so we talk about religion onboard all the time. And we have all different faiths. You know, because the astronauts come from all around the world - cosmonauts. I mean we respect each other's faiths. And I hate to talk publicly about my own just because people really get a lot of strength out of their own set of beliefs, and if you start talking in depth about your own, you are excluding other people who have different faiths that give them strength. And there's no point in that. I have huge respect for how people get strength and the faith that gives that to them. And I think what everyone would find, if they could be in that position, if they could see the whole world every 90 minutes and look down on the places where we do things right and look down where we're doing stupid, brutal things to each other and the inevitable patience of the world that houses us, I think everybody would be reinforced in their faith. And maybe readdress the real true tenets of what's good and what gives them strength. GROSS: So you do have a faith. I'm not asking you to tell us what it is, but you do have a faith, a religious faith, and felt that that was affirmed in space. HADFIELD: Oh, absolutely. The things that you believe that give you the strength, I mean there are no wishy-washy astronauts. You know, you don't get up there by being uncaring and blase. And whatever gave you the sense of tenacity and purpose to get that far in life is absolutely reaffirmed and deepened by the experience itself. GROSS: I want to thank you so much for the work that you've done in space, for the risks you've taken, and for the wonderful videos that you've sent that are so enlightening about - and fun - about what life in space is like. You know, an interesting thing about talking to you and reading your book - it's like one of the extra qualifications that you brought to your work as an astronaut is your ability to be a reporter, to describe so well what it is that you've seen and then send us back reports. http://www.npr.org/templat... Best-selling author Anne Lamott. Her new book is “Stiches: A Handbook On Meaning, Hope and Repair.” http://onpoint.wbur.org/2013... http://www.usafa.af.mil/news... [[[[[[ 2 -6 The commonly understood absence of truth is falsehood, which, correspondingly, is a logical, factual, or ethical meaning. ? The concept of truth is discussed and debated in several contexts, including philosophy and religion. ? nor tolerate among us anyone who does ? The Air Force Academy Honor Code, "We will not lie, steal or cheat, nor tolerate among us anyone who does," was formally adopted by the Academy's first graduating class of 1959 ~ In 1984, the Cadet Wing voted to add an "Honor Oath," for all cadets to take and it is administered to fourth class cadets (freshmen) when they are formally accepted into the Wing at the conclusion of Basic Cadet Training. Cadets retake the oath at the beginning of every school year. The oath consists of a statement of the Honor Code, followed by a resolution for cadets to live honorably and reads: "We will not lie, steal or cheat, nor tolerate among us anyone who does. Furthermore, I resolve to do my duty and to live honorably, so help me God." sort sort sort falsehoods? types of certainty? source of certainty? source of strength ? 3 -28 sort lies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

Risk aversion http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... [[ sort https://www.schneier.com/blog... http://friendfeed.com/citizen... , 9 -12 Behavioral and social facets of systemic risk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

Indeterminacy , [ Uncertainty arises in partially observable and/or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance and/or indolence.[1] Uncertainty http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... , [[[ 10 -10 Three Limitations of Deliberative Democracy; Identity Politics , Bad Faith and Indeterminacy ... {(12 -18 edited http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://www.informationphilosopher.com/freedom... )} 10 -30 breaking bad? http://www.urbandictionary.com/define... http://hotword.dictionary.com/emmy-id... - Thomas Page

Category:Information, knowledge, and uncertainty http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... [ 2 -18 sort http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://encyclopedia2.thefreedi... http://www.thefreedictionary.com/epistem... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

12 -17 [{[{ 9 -24 sort Jefferson_Bible http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://www.openculture.com/2013... The_Age_of_Reason Creed http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... Gottfried_Wilhelm_Leibniz The_Principles http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... 11 -5 Benjamin Franklin http://www.sciencefriday.com/blogs... 12 -17 Jefferson Quran http://onpoint.wbur.org/2013... http://www.theguardian.com/comment... http://www.theguardian.com/comment... http://onpoint.wbur.org/2013... Thomas_Paine Ideas http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

1 -31 sort http://dilbert.com/blog... - Thomas Page

Deep Uncertainty RDM focuses on informing decisions under conditions of what is called ‘deep uncertainty,’ that is, conditions where the parties to a decision do not know or do not agree on the system model(s) relating actions to consequences or the prior probability distributions for the key input parameters to those model(s). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

. - Thomas Page

Bill Nye debate ... http://www.slate.com/blogs... 2 -6 http://www.slate.com/blogs... 9 -6 http://theweek.com/article... - Thomas Page

Truth is most often used to mean in accord with fact or reality,[1] or fidelity to an original or to a standard or ideal.[1] The commonly understood absence of truth is falsehood, which, correspondingly, is a logical, factual, or ethical meaning. The concept of truth is discussed and debated in several contexts, including philosophy and religion. Many human activities depend upon the concept, where it is assumed rather than being a subject of discussion; these include science, law, and everyday life. Various theories and views of truth continue to be debated among scholars, philosophers, and theologians. Language and words are a means by which humans convey information to one another and the method used to determine what is a "truth" is termed a criterion of truth. There are differing claims on such questions as what constitutes truth: what things are truthbearers capable of being true or false; how to define and identify truth; the roles that faith-based and empirically based knowledge play; and whether truth is subjective or objective, relative or absolute. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... [ Scientific theories are the most reliable, rigorous, and comprehensive form of scientific knowledge.[3] This is significantly different from the common usage of the word "theory", which implies that something is a guess (i.e., unsubstantiated and speculative). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... [ 2 -8 sort http://friendfeed.com/citizen... sort sort http://friendfeed.com/citizen... - Thomas Page

5 -29 more Agnosticism http://io9.com/why-agn... - Thomas Page

6 -16 Meaning (theory) (test) feedback loops , Certainty series Agnosticism Approximation Belief Certainty Doubt Determinism Epistemology Fallibilism Fatalism Hypothesis Justification Nihilism Probability Scientific theory Skepticism Solipsism Theory Truth Uncertainty [[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

Kludge http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

. - Thomas Page

7 -14 Willful Indeterminacy ? - Thomas Page

Beliefs about malfunctioning magical black boxes . [ also the not so magical basic every day systems [[ getting it right? [[[ troubleshooting certainty? [[[[ certainty about the reliability of experts? ]]]]]]]] - [[[[[[ 3 -24 experts of a belief? BDI - motivations of belief 3 -28 sort http://www.salon.com/2014... 4 -6 beliefs requiring tribute from others, strengths derived from beliefs not subject to competition or inspection, beliefs , the need to attack to defend,inflicting injustice on others as part of belief? Believers perceiving victimization as justification for x? Beliefs faith awareness of mechanics actualities violence weapons? Freedom of religion. Freedom from the impositions of faith of RWNJs? Previously Conscientious objector sects http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... now allied with RWNJs? 4 -11 The need for the ability to inflict violence on the non righteous? 4 -14 not directly related but coincidentlal , JFC http://www.reuters.com/article... http://www.reuters.com/article... 4 -18 http://www.alternet.org/fox-new... http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2014... http://www.nytimes.com/2014... http://www.dailykos.com/story... 4 -21 zombie pod people Birchers http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... sort http://www.newyorker.com/online... ,,,,, http://thinkprogress.org/climate... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-ber... - Thomas Page

6-16 ^ personal and cultural beliefs that support motivations and intentions or volitional political will ? [[[[[ 6 -23 Abide 2. To continue to be sure or firm; endure. See Synonyms at stay , The Dude Abides ... - Thomas Page

6 -16 consensual realities ? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... [ collusion http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

BS [ bullshit is a greater enemy of truth than lies ~>€} http://friendfeed.com/citizen... - Thomas Page

6 -17 The right to call Bullshit on ... The Duty to call Bullshit on ... - Thomas Page

6 -18 http://hplusmagazine.com/2014... [ Rickover on Action , Knowing-Doing ? - Thomas Page

. - Thomas Page

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... ] Certainty - Rights http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... Right to self-determination[1] Right to liberty[2] Right to due process of law[2] Right to freedom of movement[3] Right to freedom of thought[4] Right to freedom of religion[4] Right to freedom of expression[5] Right to peaceably assemble[6] Right to freedom of association[7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... ( Freedom to debate maters of certainty - consensus reality? < edit wording meaning ) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... Freedom of , freedom from folkways < edit rights to negotiate folkways? [ Evolving pattern improvement not blind conservatism? Enlightenment ? 6 -22 sort http://plato.stanford.edu/entries... - Thomas Page

. - Thomas Page

8 -4 Determinism - Thomas Page

7 -20 Complexity ??? - Thomas Page

Uncertainty avoidance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... 7 -8 When you believe in things that you don't understand Then you suffer Superstition http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... ain't the way http://www.metrolyrics.com/superst... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

7 -20 the search for the easy answer ... - Thomas Page

7 -22 Ambiguity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... or Complexity [ knowing the difference ?? 8 -26 window of opportunity for BS ? - Thomas Page

7 -22 Signal delivery intention ? [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ Rumsfeld - Cheney Nixonian Conservatives ???? - Thomas Page

. - Thomas Page

8 -3 edit cut Fight or Flight fine tuning , system overhaul , update packages... [ language software http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... ? [[ Hardware ? [[[ Wetware ? {{{ Tools? [[[[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... [[[[[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... The theologian Paul Tillich characterized existential anxiety[15] as "the state in which a being is aware of its possible nonbeing" and he listed three categories for the nonbeing and resulting anxiety: ontic (fate and death), moral (guilt and condemnation), and spiritual (emptiness and meaninglessness). According to Tillich, the last of these three types of existential anxiety, i.e. spiritual anxiety, is predominant in modern times while the others were predominant in earlier periods. Tillich argues that this anxiety can be accepted as part of the human condition or it can be resisted but with negative consequences. In its pathological form, spiritual anxiety may tend to "drive the person toward the creation of certitude in systems of meaning which are supported by tradition and authority" even though such "undoubted certitude is not built on the rock of reality". https://friendfeed.com/citizen... - Thomas Page

~ a synthesis of existing psychological studies on ideology, suggesting that conservatives are characterized by traits such as a need for certainty and an intolerance of ambiguity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... . Negativity bias http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... It is a "virtually inescapable conclusion" that the "cognitive-motivational styles of leftists and rightists are quite different." http://www.motherjones.com/politic... see risk aversion above ^ 7 -26 subset certain when life begins uncertain that they will die or be granted heaven 9 -16 http://www.vox.com/2014... - Thomas Page

Extremist Reality ? - Thomas Page

All or nothing thinking http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... Moreover, cognitive distortions are thoughts that cause individuals to perceive reality negatively. These negative thinking patterns are simply convincing the mind of individuals that what they see is true when it is not. They are inaccurate thoughts that usually reinforce negative thoughts or emotions.[2] Cognitive distortions tend to interfere with the way a person perceives an event. Since the way a person feels intervenes with how they think, these distorted thoughts feed their negative emotions. As a result, an individual affected by cognitive distortions may have an overall negative outlook on the world. http://panicdisorder.about.com/od... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://www.mindtools.com/pages... - Thomas Page

8 -26 List_of_biases_in_judgment_and_decision_making http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... , How cognitive distortion relates to cognitive bias ? 9 -16 http://www.vox.com/2014... [[[[[[ 10 -19 Cognitive_inertia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... [{( ? Moral_agency http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... - Thomas Page

Natures Laws mathematic language vs manmade law https://friendfeed.com/citizen... ? 9 -26 Biology_and_political_science http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... 12 -9 As complexity increases and the nature of governance becomes more complicated { http://friendfeed.com/citizen... [ simple solutions are suspect [[ Unwarranted Influence ? [[[ Innovation, evolving improvements in performance ...? { Statistics ? Moneyball http://friendfeed.com/citizen... 12 -9 if all of the American citizens -- knew about probability and statistics, we wouldn't be in the economic mess that we're in today http://www.ted.com/talks... ~ Look, the world has changed from analog to digital. And it's time for our mathematics curriculum to change from analog to digital, from the more classical, continuous mathematics, to the more modern, discrete mathematics -- the mathematics of uncertainty, of randomness, of data -- that being probability and statistics. - Thomas Page

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