The Steely, Headless King of Texas Hold ’Em - NYTimes.com - http://www.nytimes.com/2013...
Sep 5, 2013
from
"Poker is a game of skill and intuition, of bluffs and traps. The familiar adage is that in poker, you play the player, not the cards. This machine does that, responding to opponents’ moves and pursuing optimal strategies. But to compete at the highest levels and beat the best human players, the approach must be impeccable"
- Louis Gray
You might be interested in this guy's (Dr. Michael Bowling) AI CS poker research group. http://poker.cs.ualberta.ca/
- Joe
I read this article this morning and was going to share it but Louis (as always) beat me to it. I was fascinated. The section on page 5 detailing the pro who thinks he's beaten it has really jumped out at me: "A very few poker professionals, particularly those who specialize in one-on-one limit Texas Hold ‘Em, actually have a shot at winning regularly. Michael Reed, a pro gambler from Pittsburgh, credibly claims to fall into that category. So far, over the course of 500 hours, he says, he averages about $135 per hour in profits, playing at the $20- or $40-bet level. This means that by making the maximum bets throughout a hand, he can win or lose $500 in seconds.
He has not seen many others turning a profit. “Over all, this machine crushes people,” he says. “The machine is far too aggressive and steals far too many pots.”
How does Reed manage to overcome a machine that has been so hard to beat? He says it “gains its edge by being the aggressor. It almost never check-calls, or simply matches an opponent’s bet without a raise. The bot gives credit to your hand when you raise and reraise.” Unseasoned players, Reed says, have a habit of folding hands that might seem inferior. Reed has discovered that playing connecting cards like 7 and 8 can have unexpected value. “If a high card comes on the flop, the machine often folds to a bet from you, believing that you have made a high pair. So you have the middle range [of flopped cards] from which you can make hands, and the high range from which you can bluff. If you don’t bet, the bot will want to.” It’s been estimated that Reed is among 100 or so people in the world who can steadily beat the machine.
I relayed this to Bill McBeath, Aria’s former president and a high-stakes poker player in his own right, and he laughed. McBeath said that when somebody tells him that he can beat the machine, his reply is: " ‘Come back and see me in a year, pal.’ The game does not have a statistical advantage over players, but the imperfections of human capabilities mean that it inevitably wins.” I started to explain Reed’s experiences, and McBeath cut me off. “Look, there was a 24-year-old who had beaten it for a while. Now he’s broke. And I think this machine had something to do with his demise.”"
- Stephen Mack